Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +5.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Greene wins 43.9% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Greene 45.0% vs Aho 50.0% (-5.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Greene 62.6%
Defensive zone
Greene 90.5%
Neutral zone
Greene 73.8%
Result
Ryan Greene favored at 70.6%
70.6%
29.4%
Greene
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
6
(7 meetings)
1
6
Greene
Aho
Last 7: Greene 1-6 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Greene
Aho
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Aho
0
5
Greene
Aho
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Greene
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
44.1% (506)
49.9% (851)
-5.8%
Power Play
47.5% (59)
53.5% (144)
-6.0%
Penalty Kill
43.6% (149)
43.3% (60)
+0.3%
On power play, Aho has a +6.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Greene is 43.9% vs left-shot opponents (535).
Greene shoots right. Aho is 55.5% vs right-shot opponents (364).
Home / Away
Greene
Aho
Home
47.4% (382)
53.2% (554)
Away
40.7% (332)
46.5% (501)
By Period
Greene
Aho
P1
47.2%
49.1%
P2
39.0%
50.8%
P3
47.0%
49.7%
OT
50.0%
58.8%
Final 5 min
43.4%
49.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Greene
40.0%▬
40.5%
44.3%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
50.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2026 | 3 | 19:48 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 3 | 14:20 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 3 | 12:11 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 3 | 10:03 | Offensive | Ryan Greene |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 3 | 09:51 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 2 | 19:28 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 1 | 01:13 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |