Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +7.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Greene wins 43.4% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Greene 44.7% vs Aho 51.2% (-7.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Greene 70.4%
Defensive zone
Greene 91.7%
Neutral zone
Greene 78.7%
Result
Ryan Greene favored at 76.3%
76.3%
23.7%
Greene
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
6
(7 meetings)
1
6
Greene
Aho
Last 7: Greene 1-6 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Greene
Aho
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Aho
0
5
Greene
Aho
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Greene
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
43.7% (524)
50.1% (6,619)
-6.4%
Power Play
47.5% (59)
58.9% (1,310)
-11.4%
Penalty Kill
43.6% (149)
46.3% (464)
-2.7%
On power play, Aho has a +11.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Greene is 43.4% vs left-shot opponents (546).
Greene shoots right. Aho is 51.7% vs right-shot opponents (3,088).
Home / Away
Greene
Aho
Home
47.4% (382)
52.4% (4,308)
Away
40.3% (350)
50.1% (4,085)
By Period
Greene
Aho
P1
46.4%
51.1%
P2
38.9%
52.0%
P3
47.0%
50.7%
OT
50.0%
48.9%
Final 5 min
42.9%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Greene
40.0%▬
40.5%
44.0%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2026 | 3 | 19:48 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 3 | 14:20 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 3 | 12:11 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 3 | 10:03 | Offensive | Ryan Greene |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 3 | 09:51 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 2 | 19:28 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 1 | 01:13 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |