Scouting Report
Ryan Greene holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Novak on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Greene wins 43.9% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Greene 45.0% vs Novak 43.4% (+2.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Novak 81.7%
Defensive zone
Greene 67.2%
Neutral zone
Novak 55.5%
Result
Tommy Novak favored at 52.3%
47.7%
52.3%
Greene
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Greene
Novak
Last 6: Greene 1-5 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Novak
0
1
Greene
Novak
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Greene
Novak
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Novak
0
3
Greene
Novak
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Greene
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
44.1% (506)
41.4% (379)
+2.7%
Power Play
47.5% (59)
46.9% (32)
+0.6%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Greene is 43.9% vs left-shot opponents (535).
Greene shoots right. Novak is 42.1% vs right-shot opponents (140).
Home / Away
Greene
Novak
Home
47.4% (382)
42.6% (195)
Away
40.7% (332)
41.2% (216)
By Period
Greene
Novak
P1
47.2%
42.4%
P2
39.0%
39.2%
P3
47.0%
44.7%
OT
50.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
43.4%
40.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Greene
40.0%▬
40.5%
44.3%
Novak
40.0%▼
42.0%
41.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 14:31 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 10:20 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 05:09 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Dec 28, 2025 | 2 | 13:17 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Dec 28, 2025 | 2 | 07:15 | Defensive | Ryan Greene |
| Dec 28, 2025 | 1 | 12:40 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |