Scouting Report
Ryan Greene holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Novak on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Greene wins 43.4% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Greene 44.7% vs Novak 43.3% (+1.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Novak 82.5%
Defensive zone
Greene 65.0%
Neutral zone
Novak 58.6%
Result
Tommy Novak favored at 54.7%
45.3%
54.7%
Greene
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Greene
Novak
Last 6: Greene 1-5 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Novak
0
1
Greene
Novak
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Greene
Novak
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Novak
0
3
Greene
Novak
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Greene
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
43.7% (524)
42.1% (1,539)
+1.6%
Power Play
47.5% (59)
51.9% (133)
-4.4%
Penalty Kill
43.6% (149)
50.0% (2)
-6.4%
On penalty kill, Novak has a +6.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Greene is 43.4% vs left-shot opponents (546).
Greene shoots right. Novak is 42.3% vs right-shot opponents (596).
Home / Away
Greene
Novak
Home
47.4% (382)
45.3% (814)
Away
40.3% (350)
40.6% (860)
By Period
Greene
Novak
P1
46.4%
43.9%
P2
38.9%
42.8%
P3
47.0%
41.7%
OT
50.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
42.9%
40.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Greene
40.0%▬
40.5%
44.0%
Novak
40.0%▼
42.0%
42.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 14:31 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 10:20 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 05:09 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Dec 28, 2025 | 2 | 13:17 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Dec 28, 2025 | 2 | 07:15 | Defensive | Ryan Greene |
| Dec 28, 2025 | 1 | 12:40 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |