Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Johansen on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Toews wins 66.7% vs right-shot opponents — Johansen shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toews 61.9% vs Johansen 58.2% (+3.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Johansen 75.1%
Defensive zone
Johansen 72.1%
Neutral zone
Johansen 73.2%
Result
Ryan Johansen favored at 72.9%
27.1%
72.9%
Toews
Johansen
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
5
(5 meetings)
0
5
Toews
Johansen
Last 5: Toews 0-5 Johansen
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Johansen
0
1
Toews
Johansen
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Johansen
0
4
Toews
Johansen
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toews
Johansen
Edge
Even Strength
61.1% (650)
59.8% (625)
+1.3%
Power Play
71.9% (192)
58.2% (196)
+13.7%
Penalty Kill
59.6% (99)
51.9% (27)
+7.7%
On power play, Toews has a +13.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johansen shoots right. Toews is 66.7% vs right-shot opponents (384).
Toews shoots left. Johansen is 60.4% vs left-shot opponents (594).
Home / Away
Toews
Johansen
Home
64.8% (560)
60.3% (436)
Away
60.6% (381)
58.0% (412)
By Period
Toews
Johansen
P1
62.3%
61.3%
P2
63.9%
60.4%
P3
62.8%
56.0%
OT
70.0%
56.3%
Final 5 min
60.9%
55.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
63.1%
Johansen
48.0%▬
48.5%
59.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 21, 2022 | 3 | 04:33 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Dec 21, 2022 | 2 | 19:55 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Dec 21, 2022 | 2 | 19:46 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Dec 21, 2022 | 2 | 16:40 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Dec 21, 2022 | 2 | 12:19 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |