Scouting Report
Ryan Kesler holds a +9.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Kesler on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). McDonald wins 56.9% vs right-shot opponents — Kesler shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDonald 48.7% vs Kesler 55.6% (-9.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDonald 78.2%
Defensive zone
Kesler 69.6%
Neutral zone
McDonald 55.3%
Result
Andy McDonald favored at 52.1%
52.1%
47.9%
McDonald
Kesler
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
McDonald
Kesler
Last 9: McDonald 4-5 Kesler
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
McDonald
Kesler
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kesler
0
3
McDonald
Kesler
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDonald
3
1
McDonald
Kesler
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDonald
Kesler
Edge
Even Strength
44.7% (103)
57.6% (231)
-12.9%
Power Play
51.8% (85)
65.5% (29)
-13.7%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (10)
51.2% (43)
-1.2%
On power play, Kesler has a +13.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kesler shoots right. McDonald is 56.9% vs right-shot opponents (65).
McDonald shoots left. Kesler is 58.9% vs left-shot opponents (246).
Home / Away
McDonald
Kesler
Home
43.8% (105)
58.8% (114)
Away
52.7% (93)
56.6% (189)
By Period
McDonald
Kesler
P1
47.4%
60.8%
P2
48.5%
60.0%
P3
44.9%
52.5%
OT
83.3%
66.7%
Final 5 min
50.0%
58.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDonald
56.0%▲
48.0%
48.0%
Kesler
50.0%▼
54.5%
57.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16, 2013 | 3 | 17:48 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Apr 16, 2013 | 3 | 10:50 | Neutral | Andy McDonald |
| Apr 16, 2013 | 3 | 06:28 | Offensive | Andy McDonald |
| Apr 16, 2013 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Andy McDonald |
| Apr 16, 2013 | 2 | 17:35 | Neutral | Andy McDonald |
| Apr 16, 2013 | 2 | 10:51 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Apr 16, 2013 | 2 | 02:13 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Feb 17, 2013 | 2 | 13:14 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Feb 17, 2013 | 1 | 10:30 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |