Scouting Report
Ryan Kesler holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 52.9% vs Kesler 55.2% (-2.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 65.7%
Defensive zone
Kesler 77.8%
Neutral zone
Kesler 67.3%
Result
Ryan Kesler favored at 51.4%
48.6%
51.4%
Pavelski
Kesler
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Pavelski
Kesler
Last 7: Pavelski 5-2 Kesler
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
4
0
Pavelski
Kesler
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Pavelski
Kesler
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kesler
0
1
Pavelski
Kesler
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Kesler
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (730)
55.7% (741)
-1.7%
Power Play
57.1% (156)
67.0% (100)
-9.9%
Penalty Kill
41.7% (103)
50.0% (204)
-8.3%
On power play, Kesler has a +9.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kesler shoots right. Pavelski is 49.6% vs right-shot opponents (276).
Pavelski shoots right. Kesler is 52.5% vs right-shot opponents (314).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Kesler
Home
55.2% (458)
52.5% (522)
Away
51.4% (531)
58.9% (523)
By Period
Pavelski
Kesler
P1
54.0%
56.7%
P2
54.5%
56.8%
P3
50.5%
54.1%
OT
60.0%
16.7%
Final 5 min
52.8%
54.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
53.2%
Kesler
50.0%▼
54.5%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 27, 2018 | 3 | 05:42 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 27, 2018 | 2 | 06:10 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 28, 2018 | 3 | 17:06 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 28, 2018 | 2 | 00:54 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Oct 28, 2018 | 3 | 10:04 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Oct 28, 2018 | 2 | 15:44 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 28, 2018 | 1 | 00:25 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |