Scouting Report
Ryan Kesler holds a +10.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Ward on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ward 48.4% vs Kesler 58.0% (-10.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kesler 76.6%
Defensive zone
Kesler 78.4%
Neutral zone
Kesler 80.4%
Result
Ryan Kesler favored at 77.8%
22.2%
77.8%
Ward
Kesler
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Ward
Kesler
Last 6: Ward 4-2 Kesler
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kesler
0
2
Ward
Kesler
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ward
4
0
Ward
Kesler
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ward
Kesler
Edge
Even Strength
49.3% (353)
58.6% (1,138)
-9.3%
Power Play
69.0% (42)
64.5% (186)
+4.5%
Penalty Kill
34.7% (98)
55.0% (351)
-20.3%
On penalty kill, Kesler has a +20.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kesler shoots right. Ward is 51.0% vs right-shot opponents (155).
Ward shoots right. Kesler is 59.6% vs right-shot opponents (507).
Home / Away
Ward
Kesler
Home
48.4% (219)
61.0% (859)
Away
47.8% (274)
55.9% (816)
By Period
Ward
Kesler
P1
43.0%
59.1%
P2
51.4%
56.5%
P3
50.0%
60.5%
OT
33.3%
44.4%
Final 5 min
41.8%
61.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ward
44.0%▼
47.0%
48.1%
Kesler
50.0%▼
54.5%
58.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2016 | 3 | 06:48 | Defensive | Joel Ward |
| Feb 2, 2016 | 2 | 14:41 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Feb 2, 2016 | 2 | 13:35 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Nov 7, 2015 | 1 | 00:49 | Defensive | Joel Ward |
| Oct 10, 2015 | 3 | 14:03 | Defensive | Joel Ward |
| Oct 10, 2015 | 1 | 07:14 | Defensive | Joel Ward |