Scouting Report
Ryan Kesler holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on neutral-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Duchene wins 55.0% vs right-shot opponents — Kesler shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 50.9% vs Kesler 53.3% (-2.4%)
H2H factor
Duchene leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Kesler 53.9%
Defensive zone
Kesler 75.6%
Neutral zone
Kesler 68.0%
Result
Ryan Kesler favored at 67.5%
32.5%
67.5%
Duchene
Kesler
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
4
(11 meetings)
7
4
Duchene
Kesler
Last 10: Duchene 6-4 Kesler
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
0
Duchene
Kesler
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kesler
0
3
Duchene
Kesler
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
5
1
Duchene
Kesler
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Kesler
Edge
Even Strength
51.0% (357)
53.8% (981)
-2.8%
Power Play
53.6% (28)
56.9% (160)
-3.3%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (2)
49.2% (185)
+0.8%
On power play, Kesler has a +3.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kesler shoots right. Duchene is 55.0% vs right-shot opponents (120).
Duchene shoots left. Kesler is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (959).
Home / Away
Duchene
Kesler
Home
51.0% (208)
54.1% (690)
Away
51.4% (183)
53.1% (661)
By Period
Duchene
Kesler
P1
53.3%
52.3%
P2
53.4%
52.8%
P3
44.6%
56.3%
OT
66.7%
44.1%
Final 5 min
56.5%
58.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
51.2%
Kesler
50.0%▼
54.5%
53.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2012 | 2 | 19:56 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Mar 28, 2012 | 2 | 07:13 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Mar 24, 2012 | 3 | 15:54 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Mar 24, 2012 | 2 | 12:39 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 24, 2012 | 1 | 04:34 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 6, 2011 | 2 | 12:29 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 6, 2011 | 1 | 17:06 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 6, 2011 | 1 | 04:25 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 23, 2011 | 3 | 05:25 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 23, 2011 | 2 | 10:09 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Nov 23, 2011 | 1 | 08:03 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |