Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (57.9% vs 58.5%). Look for Kesler on defensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings). Duchene wins 59.8% vs right-shot opponents — Kesler shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 57.0% vs Kesler 58.0% (-0.6%)
H2H factor
Kesler leads 12-8 in 20 meetings
Offensive zone
Duchene 81.0%
Defensive zone
Kesler 67.5%
Neutral zone
Duchene 51.1%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 55.1%
55.1%
44.9%
Duchene
Kesler
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
12
(20 meetings)
8
12
Duchene
Kesler
Last 10: Duchene 4-6 Kesler
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
5
2
Duchene
Kesler
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kesler
1
6
Duchene
Kesler
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kesler
2
4
Duchene
Kesler
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Kesler
Edge
Even Strength
56.5% (527)
58.6% (1,138)
-2.1%
Power Play
61.6% (185)
64.5% (186)
-2.9%
Penalty Kill
59.3% (27)
55.0% (351)
+4.3%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +4.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kesler shoots right. Duchene is 59.8% vs right-shot opponents (343).
Duchene shoots left. Kesler is 58.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,168).
Home / Away
Duchene
Kesler
Home
57.6% (403)
61.0% (859)
Away
58.3% (336)
55.9% (816)
By Period
Duchene
Kesler
P1
61.4%
59.1%
P2
58.5%
56.5%
P3
54.9%
60.5%
OT
40.0%
44.4%
Final 5 min
62.1%
61.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
57.9%
Kesler
50.0%▼
54.5%
58.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 9, 2016 | 3 | 05:52 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 9, 2016 | 3 | 02:26 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Apr 9, 2016 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Apr 9, 2016 | 2 | 17:25 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 9, 2016 | 2 | 13:41 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Apr 9, 2016 | 2 | 11:01 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Apr 9, 2016 | 2 | 06:54 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Apr 9, 2016 | 2 | 03:33 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Apr 9, 2016 | 2 | 00:30 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 9, 2016 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 9, 2016 | 1 | 19:51 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Apr 9, 2016 | 1 | 11:42 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Apr 9, 2016 | 1 | 05:49 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Apr 9, 2016 | 1 | 03:20 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 9, 2016 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 9, 2016 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Mar 9, 2016 | 2 | 11:05 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Mar 9, 2016 | 3 | 00:08 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 9, 2016 | 2 | 13:39 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Oct 16, 2015 | 2 | 14:49 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |