Scouting Report
Ryan Kesler holds a +8.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Backlund on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Backlund wins 42.6% vs right-shot opponents — Kesler shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backlund 46.1% vs Kesler 53.3% (-8.2%)
H2H factor
Backlund leads 7-5 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Kesler 78.2%
Defensive zone
Kesler 53.7%
Neutral zone
Kesler 70.4%
Result
Ryan Kesler favored at 66.8%
33.2%
66.8%
Backlund
Kesler
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
5
(12 meetings)
7
5
Backlund
Kesler
Last 10: Backlund 6-4 Kesler
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kesler
1
2
Backlund
Kesler
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
4
0
Backlund
Kesler
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kesler
2
3
Backlund
Kesler
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backlund
Kesler
Edge
Even Strength
45.9% (410)
53.8% (981)
-7.9%
Power Play
44.8% (29)
56.9% (160)
-12.1%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (56)
49.2% (185)
-6.3%
On power play, Kesler has a +12.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kesler shoots right. Backlund is 42.6% vs right-shot opponents (190).
Backlund shoots left. Kesler is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (959).
Home / Away
Backlund
Kesler
Home
49.3% (217)
54.1% (690)
Away
42.3% (279)
53.1% (661)
By Period
Backlund
Kesler
P1
44.0%
52.3%
P2
49.4%
52.8%
P3
42.8%
56.3%
OT
40.0%
44.1%
Final 5 min
41.2%
58.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
45.4%
Kesler
50.0%▼
54.5%
53.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 11, 2012 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 11, 2012 | 1 | 09:44 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 11, 2012 | 1 | 02:01 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Feb 11, 2012 | 1 | 00:08 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 11, 2012 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Dec 23, 2011 | 3 | 16:59 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Dec 23, 2011 | 3 | 08:59 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 23, 2011 | 3 | 05:52 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 23, 2011 | 2 | 06:29 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 23, 2011 | 2 | 01:36 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Dec 23, 2011 | 1 | 08:40 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Dec 23, 2011 | 1 | 08:30 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |