Scouting Report
Ryan Kesler holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Kesler on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Dowd wins 53.5% vs right-shot opponents — Kesler shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 50.8% vs Kesler 52.9% (-2.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kesler 54.1%
Defensive zone
Dowd 69.8%
Neutral zone
Dowd 51.7%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 51.1%
51.1%
48.9%
Dowd
Kesler
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Dowd
Kesler
Last 8: Dowd 3-5 Kesler
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Dowd
Kesler
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
0
Dowd
Kesler
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kesler
0
3
Dowd
Kesler
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Kesler
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (343)
55.2% (567)
-3.6%
Power Play
50.0% (2)
54.9% (51)
-4.9%
Penalty Kill
47.1% (51)
45.0% (131)
+2.1%
On power play, Kesler has a +4.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kesler shoots right. Dowd is 53.5% vs right-shot opponents (129).
Dowd shoots right. Kesler is 50.9% vs right-shot opponents (234).
Home / Away
Dowd
Kesler
Home
43.0% (172)
55.7% (388)
Away
57.1% (224)
50.8% (362)
By Period
Dowd
Kesler
P1
47.4%
56.3%
P2
60.6%
52.5%
P3
44.7%
52.6%
OT
33.3%
35.3%
Final 5 min
50.0%
60.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
51.0%
Kesler
50.0%▼
54.5%
53.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2, 2018 | 3 | 15:22 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Jan 2, 2018 | 3 | 12:17 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 2, 2018 | 3 | 00:20 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Jan 2, 2018 | 2 | 16:00 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 2, 2018 | 2 | 03:44 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 2, 2018 | 1 | 08:31 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Jan 2, 2018 | 1 | 08:17 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Jan 2, 2018 | 1 | 00:56 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |