Scouting Report
Paul Gaustad holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Kesler on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Gaustad wins 60.4% vs right-shot opponents — Kesler shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Gaustad 59.0% vs Kesler 57.0% (+2.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kesler 73.2%
Defensive zone
Gaustad 55.0%
Neutral zone
Kesler 55.0%
Result
Ryan Kesler favored at 62.8%
37.2%
62.8%
Gaustad
Kesler
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Gaustad
Kesler
Last 8: Gaustad 3-5 Kesler
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kesler
0
4
Gaustad
Kesler
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gaustad
1
0
Gaustad
Kesler
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gaustad
2
1
Gaustad
Kesler
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Gaustad
Kesler
Edge
Even Strength
58.6% (790)
57.3% (1,022)
+1.3%
Power Play
66.7% (93)
61.5% (200)
+5.2%
Penalty Kill
61.0% (269)
54.9% (257)
+6.1%
On penalty kill, Gaustad has a +6.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kesler shoots right. Gaustad is 60.4% vs right-shot opponents (391).
Gaustad shoots left. Kesler is 57.1% vs left-shot opponents (1,091).
Home / Away
Gaustad
Kesler
Home
60.6% (554)
58.6% (766)
Away
58.9% (604)
56.2% (730)
By Period
Gaustad
Kesler
P1
61.3%
58.9%
P2
55.5%
56.8%
P3
62.3%
57.5%
OT
75.0%
31.6%
Final 5 min
58.8%
57.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Gaustad
44.0%▼
51.0%
59.8%
Kesler
50.0%▼
54.5%
57.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 15, 2010 | 3 | 18:39 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Nov 15, 2010 | 3 | 07:00 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Nov 15, 2010 | 3 | 03:34 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Nov 15, 2010 | 2 | 13:25 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Nov 15, 2010 | 2 | 06:17 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Nov 15, 2010 | 2 | 05:26 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Nov 15, 2010 | 1 | 17:11 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Nov 15, 2010 | 1 | 04:34 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |