Scouting Report
Ryan Kesler holds a +5.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Smith on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Kesler wins 57.9% vs left-shot opponents — Smith shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kesler 57.0% vs Smith 51.8% (+5.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Smith 79.5%
Defensive zone
Smith 74.1%
Neutral zone
Smith 78.0%
Result
Zack Smith favored at 77.4%
22.6%
77.4%
Kesler
Smith
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
5
(5 meetings)
0
5
Kesler
Smith
Last 5: Kesler 0-5 Smith
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Smith
0
3
Kesler
Smith
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Smith
0
2
Kesler
Smith
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kesler
Smith
Edge
Even Strength
57.6% (1,225)
53.5% (430)
+4.1%
Power Play
63.5% (263)
47.7% (65)
+15.8%
Penalty Kill
51.5% (305)
49.1% (114)
+2.4%
On power play, Kesler has a +15.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Smith shoots left. Kesler is 57.9% vs left-shot opponents (1,218).
Kesler shoots right. Smith is 49.4% vs right-shot opponents (245).
Home / Away
Kesler
Smith
Home
59.1% (881)
54.0% (298)
Away
55.7% (912)
50.2% (311)
By Period
Kesler
Smith
P1
56.6%
55.4%
P2
58.2%
45.9%
P3
57.5%
54.6%
OT
53.6%
50.0%
Final 5 min
59.0%
52.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kesler
50.0%▼
54.5%
57.4%
Smith
40.0%▼
47.0%
52.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 22, 2016 | 3 | 16:25 | Defensive | Zack Smith |
| Dec 11, 2016 | 3 | 07:36 | Defensive | Zack Smith |
| Dec 11, 2016 | 3 | 02:15 | Offensive | Zack Smith |
| Dec 11, 2016 | 2 | 11:04 | Offensive | Zack Smith |
| Dec 11, 2016 | 1 | 07:45 | Offensive | Zack Smith |