Scouting Report
Ryan Kesler holds a +5.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Smith on defensive-zone draws (69% H2H, 13 meetings). Kesler wins 56.1% vs left-shot opponents — Smith shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kesler 55.9% vs Smith 50.6% (+5.4%)
H2H factor
Smith leads 18-15 in 33 meetings
Offensive zone
Smith 54.4%
Defensive zone
Smith 54.9%
Neutral zone
Smith 54.7%
Result
Zack Smith favored at 54.6%
45.4%
54.6%
Kesler
Smith
Head-to-Head Record
15
-
18
(33 meetings)
15
18
Kesler
Smith
Last 10: Kesler 3-7 Smith
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
6
6
Kesler
Smith
12 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Smith
4
9
Kesler
Smith
13 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kesler
5
3
Kesler
Smith
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kesler
Smith
Edge
Even Strength
56.4% (8,095)
51.6% (5,265)
+4.8%
Power Play
60.7% (1,437)
51.2% (342)
+9.5%
Penalty Kill
50.5% (1,908)
45.3% (985)
+5.2%
On power play, Kesler has a +9.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Smith shoots left. Kesler is 56.1% vs left-shot opponents (7,986).
Kesler shoots right. Smith is 47.8% vs right-shot opponents (2,394).
Home / Away
Kesler
Smith
Home
57.2% (5,732)
52.5% (3,289)
Away
54.7% (5,751)
48.7% (3,310)
By Period
Kesler
Smith
P1
56.5%
49.9%
P2
55.9%
50.0%
P3
56.1%
51.9%
OT
46.0%
51.6%
Final 5 min
56.9%
52.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kesler
50.0%▼
54.5%
56.0%
Smith
40.0%▼
47.0%
50.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 9, 2019 | 2 | 09:46 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Dec 22, 2016 | 3 | 16:25 | Defensive | Zack Smith |
| Dec 11, 2016 | 3 | 07:36 | Defensive | Zack Smith |
| Dec 11, 2016 | 3 | 02:15 | Offensive | Zack Smith |
| Dec 11, 2016 | 2 | 11:04 | Offensive | Zack Smith |
| Dec 11, 2016 | 1 | 07:45 | Offensive | Zack Smith |
| Mar 2, 2014 | 3 | 17:59 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Mar 2, 2014 | 3 | 14:11 | Defensive | Zack Smith |
| Mar 2, 2014 | 3 | 13:06 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Mar 2, 2014 | 3 | 01:03 | Defensive | Zack Smith |
| Mar 2, 2014 | 2 | 14:12 | Offensive | Zack Smith |
| Mar 2, 2014 | 1 | 15:49 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Mar 2, 2014 | 1 | 12:42 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Mar 2, 2014 | 1 | 04:10 | Defensive | Zack Smith |
| Mar 2, 2014 | 1 | 02:53 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Nov 28, 2013 | 3 | 03:38 | Defensive | Zack Smith |
| Nov 28, 2013 | 2 | 11:55 | Neutral | Zack Smith |
| Nov 28, 2013 | 2 | 00:31 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Nov 28, 2013 | 1 | 14:22 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Nov 28, 2013 | 1 | 13:48 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |