Dylan Larkin vs Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
2022-23 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +9.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Larkin wins 56.3% vs left-shot opponents — Nugent-Hopkins shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 54.1% vs Nugent-Hopkins 45.8% (+9.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 92.4%
Defensive zone
Larkin 65.9%
Neutral zone
Larkin 76.8%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 80.4%
80.4%
19.6%
Larkin
Nugent-Hopkins
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
1
(7 meetings)
6
1
Larkin
Nugent-Hopkins
Last 7: Larkin 6-1 Nugent-Hopkins
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
3
0
Larkin
Nugent-Hopkins
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Larkin
Nugent-Hopkins
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
0
Larkin
Nugent-Hopkins
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Nugent-Hopkins
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (886)
45.4% (527)
+8.2%
Power Play
59.3% (317)
41.2% (17)
+18.1%
Penalty Kill
48.7% (152)
44.9% (138)
+3.8%
On power play, Larkin has a +18.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nugent-Hopkins shoots left. Larkin is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (884).
Larkin shoots left. Nugent-Hopkins is 44.6% vs left-shot opponents (451).
Home / Away
Larkin
Nugent-Hopkins
Home
56.6% (700)
46.1% (336)
Away
52.1% (655)
44.2% (346)
By Period
Larkin
Nugent-Hopkins
P1
55.4%
49.1%
P2
54.7%
45.3%
P3
52.7%
42.0%
OT
59.1%
25.0%
Final 5 min
57.0%
39.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.4%
Nugent-Hopkins
58.0%▲
50.0%
45.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 15, 2023 | 3 | 19:53 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 15, 2023 | 1 | 03:09 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Feb 7, 2023 | 3 | 16:13 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 7, 2023 | 3 | 11:20 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 7, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 7, 2023 | 2 | 03:47 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 7, 2023 | 1 | 16:01 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |