Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +8.6% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Galchenyuk wins 46.7% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Galchenyuk 48.2% vs O'Reilly 56.2% (-8.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Galchenyuk 88.3%
Defensive zone
Galchenyuk 65.8%
Neutral zone
Galchenyuk 79.9%
Result
Alex Galchenyuk favored at 79.4%
79.4%
20.6%
Galchenyuk
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Galchenyuk
O'Reilly
Last 6: Galchenyuk 1-5 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
2
Galchenyuk
O'Reilly
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
2
Galchenyuk
O'Reilly
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Galchenyuk
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Galchenyuk
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
48.0% (654)
56.9% (1,203)
-8.9%
Power Play
48.3% (87)
60.2% (329)
-11.9%
Penalty Kill
37.5% (8)
50.4% (280)
-12.9%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +12.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Galchenyuk is 46.7% vs left-shot opponents (510).
Galchenyuk shoots left. O'Reilly is 59.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,111).
Home / Away
Galchenyuk
O'Reilly
Home
50.2% (442)
58.6% (879)
Away
44.6% (307)
54.6% (933)
By Period
Galchenyuk
O'Reilly
P1
45.2%
55.6%
P2
53.5%
57.9%
P3
46.3%
55.7%
OT
50.0%
62.5%
Final 5 min
48.8%
54.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Galchenyuk
50.0%▼
52.5%
47.9%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2016 | 3 | 12:22 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 16, 2016 | 3 | 03:03 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 16, 2016 | 2 | 09:33 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 16, 2016 | 1 | 19:43 | Offensive | Alex Galchenyuk |
| Oct 23, 2015 | 3 | 05:38 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 23, 2015 | 1 | 17:54 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |