Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Smith on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Smith 52.6% vs O'Reilly 56.2% (-2.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 92.7%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 60.3%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 83.7%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 82.5%
17.5%
82.5%
Smith
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
2
(9 meetings)
7
2
Smith
O'Reilly
Last 9: Smith 7-2 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Smith
O'Reilly
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Smith
2
0
Smith
O'Reilly
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Smith
3
0
Smith
O'Reilly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Smith
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
52.8% (127)
56.9% (1,203)
-4.1%
Power Play
100.0% (1)
60.2% (329)
+39.8%
Penalty Kill
56.1% (57)
50.4% (280)
+5.7%
On power play, Smith has a +39.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Smith is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (127).
Smith shoots right. O'Reilly is 52.6% vs right-shot opponents (701).
Home / Away
Smith
O'Reilly
Home
56.2% (121)
58.6% (879)
Away
50.0% (64)
54.6% (933)
By Period
Smith
O'Reilly
P1
55.7%
55.6%
P2
46.3%
57.9%
P3
57.4%
55.7%
OT
100.0%
62.5%
Final 5 min
62.5%
54.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Smith
38.0%▼
49.0%
54.1%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2016 | 3 | 06:56 | Neutral | Ben Smith |
| Mar 19, 2016 | 3 | 05:00 | Offensive | Ben Smith |
| Mar 19, 2016 | 3 | 04:57 | Offensive | Ben Smith |
| Mar 19, 2016 | 3 | 03:54 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 19, 2016 | 3 | 03:44 | Defensive | Ben Smith |
| Mar 19, 2016 | 3 | 03:40 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 19, 2016 | 1 | 15:31 | Neutral | Ben Smith |
| Mar 19, 2016 | 1 | 15:12 | Neutral | Ben Smith |
| Mar 19, 2016 | 1 | 13:41 | Defensive | Ben Smith |