Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +7.1% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Rowney wins 53.8% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rowney 52.2% vs O'Reilly 59.5% (-7.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 56.5%
Defensive zone
Rowney 80.0%
Neutral zone
Rowney 64.5%
Result
Carter Rowney favored at 54.0%
54.0%
46.0%
Rowney
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Rowney
O'Reilly
Last 7: Rowney 2-5 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
5
Rowney
O'Reilly
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Rowney
2
0
Rowney
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rowney
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
52.1% (219)
60.3% (1,517)
-8.2%
Penalty Kill
54.9% (91)
55.0% (220)
-0.1%
On even strength, O'Reilly has a +8.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Rowney is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (197).
Rowney shoots right. O'Reilly is 59.7% vs right-shot opponents (713).
Home / Away
Rowney
O'Reilly
Home
55.3% (152)
62.5% (1,143)
Away
50.6% (158)
57.1% (981)
By Period
Rowney
O'Reilly
P1
54.1%
56.8%
P2
49.6%
64.6%
P3
54.3%
58.5%
OT
100.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
47.9%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rowney
52.0%▲
45.0%
52.9%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
60.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2, 2017 | 3 | 14:07 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 2, 2017 | 3 | 04:25 | Defensive | Carter Rowney |
| Dec 2, 2017 | 2 | 15:15 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 2, 2017 | 2 | 07:55 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 1, 2017 | 3 | 12:13 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 1, 2017 | 2 | 15:46 | Defensive | Carter Rowney |
| Dec 1, 2017 | 2 | 06:05 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |