Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +11.9% FO% edge overall. Paquette wins 47.0% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Paquette 46.8% vs O'Reilly 57.6% (-11.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 87.7%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 60.7%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 69.1%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 74.9%
25.1%
74.9%
Paquette
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Paquette
O'Reilly
Last 5: Paquette 3-2 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
2
Paquette
O'Reilly
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paquette
1
0
Paquette
O'Reilly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Paquette
2
0
Paquette
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Paquette
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
49.0% (347)
57.9% (1,179)
-8.9%
Power Play
28.6% (7)
63.0% (292)
-34.4%
Penalty Kill
35.0% (80)
53.8% (320)
-18.8%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +34.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Paquette is 47.0% vs left-shot opponents (279).
Paquette shoots left. O'Reilly is 60.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,095).
Home / Away
Paquette
O'Reilly
Home
42.3% (182)
61.3% (884)
Away
48.8% (252)
54.8% (907)
By Period
Paquette
O'Reilly
P1
51.3%
55.5%
P2
46.1%
61.0%
P3
40.3%
56.8%
OT
50.0%
67.7%
Final 5 min
41.9%
55.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Paquette
28.0%▼
38.5%
46.1%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
58.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2017 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Cedric Paquette |
| Mar 4, 2017 | 1 | 19:39 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 12, 2017 | 3 | 10:41 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 12, 2017 | 2 | 05:18 | Neutral | Cedric Paquette |
| Jan 12, 2017 | 1 | 11:08 | Defensive | Cedric Paquette |