Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +8.7% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Moss wins 42.5% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Moss 44.6% vs O'Reilly 51.6% (-8.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 62.1%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 90.4%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 77.6%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 75.3%
24.7%
75.3%
Moss
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Moss
O'Reilly
Last 8: Moss 5-3 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Moss
2
0
Moss
O'Reilly
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Moss
1
0
Moss
O'Reilly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
3
Moss
O'Reilly
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Moss
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
41.5% (277)
53.4% (770)
-11.9%
Power Play
44.7% (38)
55.6% (54)
-10.9%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (48)
44.4% (196)
+5.6%
On even strength, O'Reilly has a +11.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Moss is 42.5% vs left-shot opponents (252).
Moss shoots right. O'Reilly is 51.7% vs right-shot opponents (302).
Home / Away
Moss
O'Reilly
Home
45.0% (191)
53.5% (533)
Away
41.0% (173)
50.0% (492)
By Period
Moss
O'Reilly
P1
39.3%
50.8%
P2
45.5%
52.4%
P3
44.0%
51.6%
OT
50.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
43.4%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Moss
38.0%▼
40.5%
43.1%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
51.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 14, 2011 | 3 | 09:16 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 14, 2011 | 3 | 02:51 | Offensive | David Moss |
| Feb 14, 2011 | 3 | 02:33 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 14, 2011 | 3 | 00:40 | Neutral | David Moss |
| Dec 31, 2010 | 3 | 04:39 | Defensive | David Moss |
| Dec 31, 2010 | 2 | 16:09 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 31, 2010 | 1 | 17:39 | Offensive | David Moss |
| Nov 9, 2010 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | David Moss |