Scouting Report
Derek MacKenzie holds a +6.5% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKenzie on defensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). MacKenzie wins 59.4% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKenzie 57.2% vs O'Reilly 52.3% (+6.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Result
Derek MacKenzie favored at 54.9%
54.9%
45.1%
MacKenzie
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
MacKenzie
O'Reilly
Last 8: MacKenzie 4-4 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
2
MacKenzie
O'Reilly
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKenzie
3
2
MacKenzie
O'Reilly
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKenzie
1
0
MacKenzie
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKenzie
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
61.0% (264)
53.6% (392)
+7.4%
Power Play
100.0% (4)
47.2% (36)
+52.8%
Penalty Kill
49.1% (55)
50.0% (28)
-0.9%
On power play, MacKenzie has a +52.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. MacKenzie is 59.4% vs left-shot opponents (234).
MacKenzie shoots left. O'Reilly is 53.5% vs left-shot opponents (314).
Home / Away
MacKenzie
O'Reilly
Home
62.1% (145)
54.4% (237)
Away
57.3% (178)
51.1% (219)
By Period
MacKenzie
O'Reilly
P1
51.6%
50.3%
P2
59.8%
51.4%
P3
65.8%
55.7%
OT
50.0%
71.4%
Final 5 min
54.8%
46.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKenzie
56.0%▲
53.5%
59.4%
O'Reilly
56.0%▲
54.5%
52.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 15, 2013 | OT | 02:08 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Mar 3, 2013 | 3 | 11:42 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 3, 2013 | 3 | 11:31 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 3, 2013 | 3 | 08:49 | Neutral | Derek MacKenzie |
| Mar 3, 2013 | 3 | 06:26 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 3, 2013 | 2 | 15:30 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Mar 3, 2013 | 2 | 12:53 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 3, 2013 | 2 | 03:51 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |