Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +13.6% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on neutral-zone draws (89% H2H, 9 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nielsen 46.7% vs O'Reilly 59.5% (-13.6%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 19-6 in 25 meetings
Offensive zone
Nielsen 94.2%
Defensive zone
Nielsen 92.1%
Neutral zone
Nielsen 91.3%
Result
Frans Nielsen favored at 92.3%
92.3%
7.7%
Nielsen
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
19
(25 meetings)
6
19
Nielsen
O'Reilly
Last 10: Nielsen 3-7 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
3
3
Nielsen
O'Reilly
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
8
Nielsen
O'Reilly
10 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
8
Nielsen
O'Reilly
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nielsen
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
47.6% (836)
60.3% (1,517)
-12.7%
Power Play
53.2% (47)
61.5% (387)
-8.3%
Penalty Kill
38.0% (158)
55.0% (220)
-17.0%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +17.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Nielsen is 48.7% vs left-shot opponents (596).
Nielsen shoots left. O'Reilly is 60.1% vs left-shot opponents (1,411).
Home / Away
Nielsen
O'Reilly
Home
50.4% (508)
62.5% (1,143)
Away
42.6% (533)
57.1% (981)
By Period
Nielsen
O'Reilly
P1
48.1%
56.8%
P2
44.6%
64.6%
P3
46.8%
58.5%
OT
33.3%
66.7%
Final 5 min
48.2%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nielsen
50.0%▬
50.0%
46.4%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
60.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 29, 2018 | 3 | 04:35 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 29, 2018 | 2 | 18:16 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 29, 2018 | 2 | 18:09 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 29, 2018 | 2 | 00:30 | Defensive | Frans Nielsen |
| Mar 29, 2018 | 1 | 14:27 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 29, 2018 | 1 | 11:30 | Offensive | Frans Nielsen |
| Mar 29, 2018 | 1 | 08:08 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 29, 2018 | 1 | 05:54 | Defensive | Frans Nielsen |
| Feb 22, 2018 | 3 | 18:35 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 22, 2018 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 22, 2018 | 2 | 19:15 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 22, 2018 | 2 | 12:00 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 22, 2018 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 22, 2018 | 1 | 08:05 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 22, 2018 | 1 | 04:49 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 22, 2018 | 1 | 04:42 | Offensive | Frans Nielsen |
| Feb 22, 2018 | 1 | 02:22 | Offensive | Frans Nielsen |
| Feb 22, 2018 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Frans Nielsen |
| Nov 17, 2017 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 24, 2017 | 2 | 10:51 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |