Scouting Report
Joe Thornton holds a +4.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Thornton on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Thornton wins 59.3% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thornton 57.3% vs O'Reilly 53.2% (+4.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thornton 60.5%
Defensive zone
Thornton 58.0%
Neutral zone
Thornton 60.0%
Result
Joe Thornton favored at 58.8%
58.8%
41.2%
Thornton
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Thornton
O'Reilly
Last 5: Thornton 4-1 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
2
1
Thornton
O'Reilly
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thornton
2
0
Thornton
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thornton
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
58.7% (722)
52.7% (900)
+6.0%
Power Play
58.5% (147)
55.6% (225)
+2.9%
Penalty Kill
51.2% (86)
54.5% (209)
-3.3%
On even strength, Thornton has a +6.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Thornton is 59.3% vs left-shot opponents (528).
Thornton shoots left. O'Reilly is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (807).
Home / Away
Thornton
O'Reilly
Home
60.1% (496)
55.1% (693)
Away
55.8% (459)
51.6% (641)
By Period
Thornton
O'Reilly
P1
60.4%
51.5%
P2
54.7%
54.7%
P3
58.2%
52.7%
OT
61.5%
69.7%
Final 5 min
55.5%
51.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
58.0%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
53.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2014 | OT | 03:21 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 28, 2014 | OT | 03:08 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 28, 2014 | 3 | 16:30 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 28, 2014 | 3 | 13:05 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 28, 2014 | 2 | 16:45 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |