Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +9.1% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ward 49.1% vs O'Reilly 57.6% (-9.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 90.2%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 88.6%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 86.7%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 88.9%
11.1%
88.9%
Ward
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Ward
O'Reilly
Last 5: Ward 4-1 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Ward
2
0
Ward
O'Reilly
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ward
2
0
Ward
O'Reilly
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Ward
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ward
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
52.8% (339)
57.9% (1,179)
-5.1%
Power Play
48.5% (33)
63.0% (292)
-14.5%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (84)
53.8% (320)
-20.5%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +20.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Ward is 49.0% vs left-shot opponents (353).
Ward shoots right. O'Reilly is 54.9% vs right-shot opponents (696).
Home / Away
Ward
O'Reilly
Home
53.4% (251)
61.3% (884)
Away
43.4% (205)
54.8% (907)
By Period
Ward
O'Reilly
P1
49.4%
55.5%
P2
46.9%
61.0%
P3
50.3%
56.8%
Final 5 min
47.1%
55.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ward
44.0%▼
47.0%
48.9%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
58.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2017 | 2 | 19:28 | Defensive | Joel Ward |
| Mar 14, 2017 | 2 | 06:03 | Offensive | Joel Ward |
| Mar 14, 2017 | 1 | 00:10 | Offensive | Joel Ward |
| Feb 7, 2017 | 3 | 09:03 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 7, 2017 | 1 | 05:58 | Defensive | Joel Ward |