Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +9.4% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Larsson wins 44.3% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larsson 45.4% vs O'Reilly 53.2% (-9.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larsson 66.7%
Defensive zone
Larsson 56.4%
Neutral zone
Larsson 63.4%
Result
Johan Larsson favored at 58.7%
58.7%
41.3%
Larsson
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Larsson
O'Reilly
Last 6: Larsson 2-4 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
3
Larsson
O'Reilly
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Larsson
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larsson
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
45.2% (290)
52.7% (900)
-7.5%
Power Play
38.6% (44)
55.6% (225)
-17.0%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (7)
54.5% (209)
-25.9%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +25.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Larsson is 44.3% vs left-shot opponents (212).
Larsson shoots left. O'Reilly is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (807).
Home / Away
Larsson
O'Reilly
Home
45.1% (153)
55.1% (693)
Away
43.1% (188)
51.6% (641)
By Period
Larsson
O'Reilly
P1
45.3%
51.5%
P2
41.4%
54.7%
P3
44.0%
52.7%
OT
60.0%
69.7%
Final 5 min
38.6%
51.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larsson
40.0%▼
46.5%
44.0%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
53.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2015 | 3 | 15:50 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 28, 2015 | 3 | 13:30 | Defensive | Johan Larsson |
| Mar 28, 2015 | 3 | 10:19 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 28, 2015 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Johan Larsson |
| Mar 28, 2015 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 20, 2014 | 2 | 16:48 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |