Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +1.0% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stajan 51.6% vs O'Reilly 52.6% (-1.0%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 10-4 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Stajan 54.8%
Defensive zone
Stajan 74.0%
Neutral zone
Stajan 63.9%
Result
Matt Stajan favored at 65.6%
65.6%
34.4%
Stajan
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
10
(14 meetings)
4
10
Stajan
O'Reilly
Last 10: Stajan 3-7 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
3
Stajan
O'Reilly
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
4
Stajan
O'Reilly
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
3
Stajan
O'Reilly
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stajan
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
53.0% (509)
52.5% (1,177)
+0.5%
Power Play
41.4% (29)
54.6% (130)
-13.2%
Penalty Kill
48.0% (98)
52.8% (108)
-4.8%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +13.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Stajan is 52.5% vs left-shot opponents (442).
Stajan shoots left. O'Reilly is 53.7% vs left-shot opponents (1,027).
Home / Away
Stajan
O'Reilly
Home
53.8% (353)
54.9% (669)
Away
49.3% (286)
51.0% (774)
By Period
Stajan
O'Reilly
P1
52.0%
52.4%
P2
52.0%
56.1%
P3
51.0%
49.8%
OT
75.0%
57.7%
Final 5 min
50.9%
53.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stajan
50.0%▬
49.5%
51.8%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
52.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2012 | 3 | 14:29 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 30, 2012 | 3 | 06:15 | Neutral | Matt Stajan |
| Mar 30, 2012 | 3 | 06:13 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 30, 2012 | 3 | 06:09 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 30, 2012 | 2 | 03:26 | Offensive | Matt Stajan |
| Mar 20, 2012 | 3 | 10:26 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 20, 2012 | 2 | 03:55 | Defensive | Matt Stajan |
| Dec 8, 2011 | 2 | 09:34 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 8, 2011 | 1 | 05:16 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 6, 2011 | 3 | 12:36 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 6, 2011 | 3 | 09:41 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 6, 2011 | 2 | 07:09 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 6, 2011 | 2 | 06:46 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 6, 2011 | 1 | 10:30 | Defensive | Matt Stajan |