Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Thompson wins 55.7% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thompson 54.5% vs O'Reilly 56.2% (-1.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 60.1%
Defensive zone
Thompson 76.9%
Neutral zone
Thompson 55.7%
Result
Nate Thompson favored at 56.8%
56.8%
43.2%
Thompson
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Thompson
O'Reilly
Last 5: Thompson 1-4 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Thompson
O'Reilly
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
1
0
Thompson
O'Reilly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
3
Thompson
O'Reilly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thompson
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
55.8% (654)
57.3% (1,073)
-1.5%
Power Play
50.0% (10)
58.5% (258)
-8.5%
Penalty Kill
51.2% (123)
50.7% (225)
+0.5%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +8.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Thompson is 55.7% vs left-shot opponents (517).
Thompson shoots left. O'Reilly is 53.5% vs left-shot opponents (962).
Home / Away
Thompson
O'Reilly
Home
57.0% (421)
59.2% (765)
Away
52.7% (366)
54.0% (791)
By Period
Thompson
O'Reilly
P1
57.9%
55.6%
P2
52.3%
61.0%
P3
55.2%
52.3%
OT
0.0%
61.3%
Final 5 min
51.5%
58.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thompson
64.0%▲
59.0%
55.0%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19, 2019 | 1 | 05:57 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 12, 2019 | 3 | 13:25 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Oct 12, 2019 | 2 | 18:55 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 12, 2019 | 2 | 15:35 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 12, 2019 | 2 | 02:29 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |