Nathan MacKinnon vs Ryan O'Reilly
2019-20 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +13.5% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 8 meetings). MacKinnon wins 43.7% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 43.8% vs O'Reilly 56.2% (-13.5%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 16-4 in 20 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 91.9%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 90.1%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 92.3%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 91.6%
91.6%
8.4%
MacKinnon
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
16
(20 meetings)
4
16
MacKinnon
O'Reilly
Last 10: MacKinnon 2-8 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
8
MacKinnon
O'Reilly
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
3
MacKinnon
O'Reilly
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
5
MacKinnon
O'Reilly
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
44.4% (743)
57.3% (1,073)
-12.9%
Power Play
35.7% (70)
58.5% (258)
-22.8%
Penalty Kill
25.9% (27)
50.7% (225)
-24.8%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +24.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. MacKinnon is 43.7% vs left-shot opponents (646).
MacKinnon shoots right. O'Reilly is 61.4% vs right-shot opponents (594).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
O'Reilly
Home
46.4% (394)
59.2% (765)
Away
40.1% (446)
54.0% (791)
By Period
MacKinnon
O'Reilly
P1
44.4%
55.6%
P2
38.2%
61.0%
P3
46.4%
52.3%
OT
50.0%
61.3%
Final 5 min
44.1%
58.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
43.1%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2020 | 3 | 06:49 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 18, 2020 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 18, 2020 | 1 | 15:47 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 16, 2019 | 3 | 12:09 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 16, 2019 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 16, 2019 | 2 | 10:15 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 16, 2019 | 2 | 10:10 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 16, 2019 | 2 | 05:55 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 16, 2019 | 2 | 00:06 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 16, 2019 | 1 | 18:51 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 16, 2019 | 1 | 09:31 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 16, 2019 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 21, 2019 | 2 | 08:56 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 21, 2019 | 2 | 06:40 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 21, 2019 | 2 | 06:27 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 21, 2019 | 2 | 04:33 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 21, 2019 | 1 | 10:38 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 21, 2019 | 1 | 10:26 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 21, 2019 | 1 | 03:34 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 21, 2019 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |