Nathan MacKinnon vs Ryan O'Reilly
2020-21 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +10.3% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 12 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 48.7% vs O'Reilly 58.1% (-10.3%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 35-19 in 54 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 87.7%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 91.6%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 86.7%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 88.0%
88.0%
12.0%
MacKinnon
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
19
-
35
(54 meetings)
19
35
MacKinnon
O'Reilly
Last 10: MacKinnon 4-6 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
4
8
MacKinnon
O'Reilly
12 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
3
9
MacKinnon
O'Reilly
12 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
12
18
MacKinnon
O'Reilly
30 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
48.5% (439)
58.6% (841)
-10.1%
Power Play
54.8% (42)
59.9% (207)
-5.1%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (12)
58.1% (148)
-33.1%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +33.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. MacKinnon is 47.4% vs left-shot opponents (424).
MacKinnon shoots right. O'Reilly is 64.4% vs right-shot opponents (331).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
O'Reilly
Home
52.5% (221)
59.8% (594)
Away
45.2% (272)
57.8% (602)
By Period
MacKinnon
O'Reilly
P1
50.5%
61.7%
P2
45.5%
56.2%
P3
48.5%
59.5%
OT
50.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
44.1%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
48.5%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
58.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 26, 2021 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Apr 26, 2021 | 2 | 13:47 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 26, 2021 | 2 | 10:04 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 26, 2021 | 1 | 15:15 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 26, 2021 | 1 | 13:15 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Apr 26, 2021 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Apr 24, 2021 | 3 | 06:53 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Apr 24, 2021 | 2 | 16:57 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 24, 2021 | 1 | 17:48 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 24, 2021 | 1 | 11:47 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 24, 2021 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 22, 2021 | 3 | 13:43 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 22, 2021 | 3 | 06:52 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Apr 22, 2021 | 3 | 04:24 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 22, 2021 | 3 | 04:02 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Apr 22, 2021 | 2 | 02:17 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Apr 22, 2021 | 1 | 19:57 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Apr 22, 2021 | 1 | 19:28 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 22, 2021 | 1 | 03:30 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 22, 2021 | 1 | 03:18 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |