Nathan MacKinnon vs Ryan O'Reilly
2022-23 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +11.4% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). MacKinnon wins 44.4% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 44.9% vs O'Reilly 55.2% (-11.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 82.4%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 93.4%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 92.4%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 84.2%
15.8%
84.2%
MacKinnon
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
0
(6 meetings)
6
0
MacKinnon
O'Reilly
Last 6: MacKinnon 6-0 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
5
0
MacKinnon
O'Reilly
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
0
MacKinnon
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
44.7% (1,053)
56.1% (690)
-11.4%
Power Play
36.8% (95)
64.6% (96)
-27.8%
Penalty Kill
65.0% (20)
45.9% (109)
+19.1%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +27.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. MacKinnon is 44.4% vs left-shot opponents (860).
MacKinnon shoots right. O'Reilly is 56.5% vs right-shot opponents (292).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
O'Reilly
Home
49.4% (553)
58.3% (408)
Away
40.0% (615)
53.6% (487)
By Period
MacKinnon
O'Reilly
P1
45.3%
57.7%
P2
42.7%
54.8%
P3
45.1%
55.2%
OT
46.2%
45.5%
Final 5 min
49.8%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
44.4%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 14, 2022 | 3 | 18:16 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 14, 2022 | 3 | 17:59 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 14, 2022 | 3 | 11:19 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 14, 2022 | 3 | 02:03 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 14, 2022 | 2 | 08:35 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 14, 2022 | 2 | 05:16 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |