Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +4.9% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 56.2% vs Zajac 51.4% (+4.9%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 12-4 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 86.7%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 58.9%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 79.8%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 73.2%
73.2%
26.8%
O'Reilly
Zajac
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
4
(16 meetings)
12
4
O'Reilly
Zajac
Last 10: O'Reilly 8-2 Zajac
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
5
1
O'Reilly
Zajac
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
5
2
O'Reilly
Zajac
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
1
O'Reilly
Zajac
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Zajac
Edge
Even Strength
56.9% (1,203)
51.8% (986)
+5.1%
Power Play
60.2% (329)
61.1% (185)
-0.9%
Penalty Kill
50.4% (280)
42.1% (216)
+8.3%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +8.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zajac shoots right. O'Reilly is 52.6% vs right-shot opponents (701).
O'Reilly shoots left. Zajac is 52.6% vs left-shot opponents (934).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Zajac
Home
58.6% (879)
54.0% (672)
Away
54.6% (933)
49.2% (715)
By Period
O'Reilly
Zajac
P1
55.6%
53.1%
P2
57.9%
52.2%
P3
55.7%
50.1%
OT
62.5%
38.5%
Final 5 min
54.4%
53.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.5%
Zajac
62.0%▲
52.5%
51.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 5, 2016 | 3 | 16:16 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 5, 2016 | 3 | 14:20 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 5, 2016 | 3 | 00:26 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 5, 2016 | 2 | 11:55 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 5, 2016 | 2 | 08:23 | Offensive | Travis Zajac |
| Oct 24, 2015 | 3 | 17:31 | Defensive | Travis Zajac |
| Oct 24, 2015 | 3 | 13:52 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 24, 2015 | 3 | 13:45 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 24, 2015 | 3 | 10:29 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 24, 2015 | 3 | 08:51 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 24, 2015 | 2 | 18:03 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 24, 2015 | 1 | 19:10 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 24, 2015 | 1 | 14:46 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 24, 2015 | 1 | 08:30 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 24, 2015 | 1 | 06:54 | Neutral | Travis Zajac |
| Oct 24, 2015 | 1 | 03:50 | Defensive | Travis Zajac |