Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +1.7% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (56% H2H, 36 meetings). O'Reilly wins 55.7% vs right-shot opponents — Zajac shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 56.0% vs Zajac 54.2% (+1.7%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 50-44 in 94 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 66.4%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 52.1%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 56.5%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 58.6%
58.6%
41.4%
O'Reilly
Zajac
Head-to-Head Record
50
-
44
(94 meetings)
50
44
O'Reilly
Zajac
Last 10: O'Reilly 5-5 Zajac
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
20
16
O'Reilly
Zajac
36 total
Defensive Zone
Even
18
18
O'Reilly
Zajac
36 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
12
10
O'Reilly
Zajac
22 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Zajac
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (15,260)
54.4% (9,056)
+1.8%
Power Play
58.8% (3,445)
59.1% (1,498)
-0.3%
Penalty Kill
51.4% (2,811)
48.6% (1,599)
+2.8%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zajac shoots right. O'Reilly is 55.7% vs right-shot opponents (7,689).
O'Reilly shoots left. Zajac is 54.9% vs left-shot opponents (8,183).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Zajac
Home
57.6% (10,762)
55.5% (6,156)
Away
54.4% (10,787)
53.0% (6,038)
By Period
O'Reilly
Zajac
P1
55.6%
53.8%
P2
57.0%
55.6%
P3
55.1%
53.6%
OT
62.2%
52.3%
Final 5 min
55.3%
54.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.0%
Zajac
62.0%▲
52.5%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2020 | 3 | 10:50 | Defensive | Travis Zajac |
| Mar 6, 2020 | 3 | 05:37 | Defensive | Travis Zajac |
| Mar 6, 2020 | 3 | 05:30 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 6, 2020 | 3 | 05:26 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 6, 2020 | 3 | 01:19 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 6, 2020 | 2 | 16:53 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 6, 2020 | 2 | 12:09 | Defensive | Travis Zajac |
| Mar 6, 2020 | 2 | 08:27 | Neutral | Travis Zajac |
| Mar 6, 2020 | 1 | 10:37 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 6, 2020 | 1 | 02:37 | Defensive | Travis Zajac |
| Feb 18, 2020 | 3 | 14:17 | Defensive | Travis Zajac |
| Feb 18, 2020 | 3 | 11:16 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 18, 2020 | 3 | 11:09 | Offensive | Travis Zajac |
| Feb 18, 2020 | 3 | 08:57 | Offensive | Travis Zajac |
| Feb 18, 2020 | 3 | 03:58 | Defensive | Travis Zajac |
| Feb 18, 2020 | 2 | 03:28 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 18, 2020 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 18, 2020 | 1 | 18:47 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 30, 2019 | 3 | 17:50 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 30, 2019 | 3 | 15:54 | Neutral | Travis Zajac |