Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +5.9% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 20 meetings). O'Reilly wins 56.2% vs left-shot opponents — Rask shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 56.0% vs Rask 50.1% (+5.9%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 34-26 in 60 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 60.6%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 88.9%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 76.8%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 74.1%
74.1%
25.9%
O'Reilly
Rask
Head-to-Head Record
34
-
26
(60 meetings)
34
26
O'Reilly
Rask
Last 10: O'Reilly 5-5 Rask
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
13
12
O'Reilly
Rask
25 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
12
8
O'Reilly
Rask
20 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
9
6
O'Reilly
Rask
15 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Rask
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (15,103)
50.0% (4,428)
+6.2%
Power Play
58.7% (3,395)
54.3% (363)
+4.4%
Penalty Kill
51.6% (2,769)
35.2% (54)
+16.4%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +16.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Rask shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (13,728).
O'Reilly shoots left. Rask is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (3,102).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Rask
Home
57.6% (10,669)
52.0% (2,380)
Away
54.4% (10,631)
48.3% (2,465)
By Period
O'Reilly
Rask
P1
55.5%
50.7%
P2
57.0%
48.9%
P3
55.2%
50.7%
OT
62.7%
52.1%
Final 5 min
55.4%
48.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
56.0%▲
54.5%
56.0%
Rask
60.0%▲
49.5%
50.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 13, 2021 | 2 | 05:16 | Neutral | Victor Rask |
| May 13, 2021 | 1 | 07:53 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| May 1, 2021 | 2 | 00:14 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 29, 2021 | 3 | 15:43 | Offensive | Victor Rask |
| Apr 10, 2021 | 3 | 19:37 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 10, 2021 | 2 | 03:07 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 9, 2021 | 1 | 16:33 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 9, 2021 | 1 | 13:13 | Offensive | Victor Rask |
| Apr 9, 2021 | 1 | 04:52 | Offensive | Victor Rask |
| Apr 9, 2021 | 1 | 01:54 | Defensive | Victor Rask |
| Apr 9, 2021 | 1 | 01:48 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 25, 2021 | 3 | 13:47 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 25, 2021 | 2 | 03:54 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 25, 2021 | 1 | 11:19 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 25, 2021 | 1 | 10:57 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 23, 2020 | 2 | 12:09 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 30, 2019 | 1 | 10:48 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 30, 2019 | 1 | 07:46 | Defensive | Victor Rask |
| Dec 15, 2017 | 2 | 15:51 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 15, 2017 | 2 | 09:14 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |