Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +13.4% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). O'Reilly wins 56.6% vs left-shot opponents — Rask shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 58.1% vs Rask 46.2% (+13.4%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 10-5 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 80.9%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 89.7%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 81.5%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 84.6%
84.6%
15.4%
O'Reilly
Rask
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
5
(15 meetings)
10
5
O'Reilly
Rask
Last 10: O'Reilly 5-5 Rask
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Rask
2
3
O'Reilly
Rask
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
5
1
O'Reilly
Rask
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
3
1
O'Reilly
Rask
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Rask
Edge
Even Strength
58.6% (841)
45.5% (442)
+13.1%
Power Play
59.9% (207)
44.7% (38)
+15.2%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +15.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Rask shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (865).
O'Reilly shoots left. Rask is 45.5% vs left-shot opponents (314).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Rask
Home
59.8% (594)
45.6% (228)
Away
57.8% (602)
45.2% (252)
By Period
O'Reilly
Rask
P1
61.7%
45.1%
P2
56.2%
45.5%
P3
59.5%
45.8%
Final 5 min
59.5%
41.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
58.8%
Rask
60.0%▲
49.5%
45.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 13, 2021 | 2 | 05:16 | Neutral | Victor Rask |
| May 13, 2021 | 1 | 07:53 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| May 1, 2021 | 2 | 00:14 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 29, 2021 | 3 | 15:43 | Offensive | Victor Rask |
| Apr 10, 2021 | 3 | 19:37 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 10, 2021 | 2 | 03:07 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 9, 2021 | 1 | 16:33 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 9, 2021 | 1 | 13:13 | Offensive | Victor Rask |
| Apr 9, 2021 | 1 | 04:52 | Offensive | Victor Rask |
| Apr 9, 2021 | 1 | 01:54 | Defensive | Victor Rask |
| Apr 9, 2021 | 1 | 01:48 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 25, 2021 | 3 | 13:47 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 25, 2021 | 2 | 03:54 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 25, 2021 | 1 | 11:19 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 25, 2021 | 1 | 10:57 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |