Scouting Report
Alex Turcotte holds a +6.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Poehling on neutral-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings). Turcotte wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Poehling shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Turcotte 53.2% vs Poehling 47.4% (+6.9%)
H2H factor
Poehling leads 8-5 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Turcotte 65.1%
Defensive zone
Poehling 82.3%
Neutral zone
Poehling 59.9%
Result
Ryan Poehling favored at 70.2%
29.8%
70.2%
Turcotte
Poehling
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
8
(13 meetings)
5
8
Turcotte
Poehling
Last 10: Turcotte 4-6 Poehling
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
3
3
Turcotte
Poehling
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Poehling
2
5
Turcotte
Poehling
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Turcotte
Poehling
Edge
Even Strength
53.5% (460)
49.8% (615)
+3.7%
Power Play
70.0% (10)
58.3% (12)
+11.7%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (1)
38.1% (202)
+61.9%
On penalty kill, Turcotte has a +61.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Poehling shoots left. Turcotte is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (302).
Turcotte shoots left. Poehling is 45.3% vs left-shot opponents (550).
Home / Away
Turcotte
Poehling
Home
53.2% (263)
47.2% (388)
Away
54.8% (208)
46.9% (441)
By Period
Turcotte
Poehling
P1
57.0%
53.4%
P2
59.6%
39.5%
P3
44.1%
48.9%
Final 5 min
52.6%
51.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Turcotte
38.0%▼
52.5%
53.9%
Poehling
56.0%▲
47.5%
47.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 18:30 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 16:03 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 12:18 | Defensive | Alex Turcotte |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 1 | 19:37 | Neutral | Ryan Poehling |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 2 | 12:12 | Neutral | Alex Turcotte |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 2 | 01:20 | Defensive | Alex Turcotte |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 1 | 01:52 | Defensive | Alex Turcotte |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 1 | 01:38 | Neutral | Ryan Poehling |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 3 | 18:24 | Neutral | Ryan Poehling |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 2 | 15:39 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 1 | 07:49 | Neutral | Alex Turcotte |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 1 | 08:43 | Neutral | Ryan Poehling |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 1 | 08:36 | Neutral | Ryan Poehling |