Scouting Report
Barrett Hayton holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Poehling on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Hayton wins 55.3% vs left-shot opponents — Poehling shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayton 52.4% vs Poehling 47.4% (+5.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hayton 56.0%
Defensive zone
Poehling 80.5%
Neutral zone
Poehling 58.6%
Result
Ryan Poehling favored at 67.1%
32.9%
67.1%
Hayton
Poehling
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Hayton
Poehling
Last 6: Hayton 1-5 Poehling
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hayton
1
0
Hayton
Poehling
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Poehling
0
3
Hayton
Poehling
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Poehling
0
2
Hayton
Poehling
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayton
Poehling
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (646)
49.8% (626)
+2.7%
Power Play
56.8% (111)
58.3% (12)
-1.5%
Penalty Kill
36.8% (19)
38.2% (207)
-1.4%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Poehling shoots left. Hayton is 55.3% vs left-shot opponents (474).
Hayton shoots left. Poehling is 45.3% vs left-shot opponents (559).
Home / Away
Hayton
Poehling
Home
56.9% (432)
47.3% (404)
Away
47.4% (344)
46.9% (441)
By Period
Hayton
Poehling
P1
53.1%
53.5%
P2
50.3%
39.4%
P3
55.4%
49.1%
OT
25.0%
35.7%
Final 5 min
59.5%
51.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayton
42.0%▼
51.0%
52.7%
Poehling
58.0%▲
48.5%
47.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2026 | 3 | 14:32 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Mar 20, 2026 | 2 | 09:09 | Neutral | Ryan Poehling |
| Mar 20, 2026 | 2 | 06:16 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Mar 20, 2026 | 1 | 13:20 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Mar 20, 2026 | 1 | 06:40 | Offensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Mar 20, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Poehling |