Scouting Report
Cory Emmerton holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Smyth on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Emmerton wins 45.4% vs left-shot opponents — Smyth shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Emmerton 46.2% vs Smyth 45.4% (+2.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Smyth 50.6%
Defensive zone
Smyth 56.6%
Neutral zone
Smyth 59.1%
Result
Ryan Smyth favored at 56.8%
43.2%
56.8%
Emmerton
Smyth
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Emmerton
Smyth
Last 6: Emmerton 2-4 Smyth
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Emmerton
1
0
Emmerton
Smyth
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Emmerton
Smyth
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Smyth
0
3
Emmerton
Smyth
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Emmerton
Smyth
Edge
Even Strength
44.8% (368)
43.2% (155)
+1.6%
Power Play
50.0% (4)
50.0% (28)
+0.0%
Penalty Kill
48.8% (41)
31.6% (19)
+17.2%
On penalty kill, Emmerton has a +17.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Smyth shoots left. Emmerton is 45.4% vs left-shot opponents (291).
Emmerton shoots left. Smyth is 41.0% vs left-shot opponents (139).
Home / Away
Emmerton
Smyth
Home
44.6% (213)
42.2% (102)
Away
46.0% (200)
44.0% (100)
By Period
Emmerton
Smyth
P1
46.3%
50.8%
P2
43.8%
41.3%
P3
45.7%
39.0%
Final 5 min
37.6%
41.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Emmerton
56.0%▲
50.0%
45.3%
Smyth
50.0%▬
50.5%
43.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2013 | 3 | 07:40 | Defensive | Cory Emmerton |
| Mar 15, 2013 | 2 | 11:42 | Neutral | Ryan Smyth |
| Feb 9, 2013 | 1 | 14:13 | Neutral | Ryan Smyth |
| Feb 9, 2013 | 1 | 14:05 | Neutral | Ryan Smyth |
| Feb 9, 2013 | 1 | 03:09 | Defensive | Ryan Smyth |
| Feb 9, 2013 | 1 | 03:06 | Offensive | Cory Emmerton |