Scouting Report
Derek MacKenzie holds a +16.3% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKenzie on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). MacKenzie wins 59.4% vs left-shot opponents — Smyth shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKenzie 57.2% vs Smyth 45.4% (+16.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKenzie 65.7%
Defensive zone
MacKenzie 92.3%
Neutral zone
MacKenzie 90.5%
Result
Derek MacKenzie favored at 84.6%
84.6%
15.4%
MacKenzie
Smyth
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
MacKenzie
Smyth
Last 8: MacKenzie 6-2 Smyth
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKenzie
2
0
MacKenzie
Smyth
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKenzie
1
0
MacKenzie
Smyth
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKenzie
3
2
MacKenzie
Smyth
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKenzie
Smyth
Edge
Even Strength
61.0% (264)
43.2% (155)
+17.8%
Power Play
100.0% (4)
50.0% (28)
+50.0%
Penalty Kill
49.1% (55)
31.6% (19)
+17.5%
On power play, MacKenzie has a +50.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Smyth shoots left. MacKenzie is 59.4% vs left-shot opponents (234).
MacKenzie shoots left. Smyth is 41.0% vs left-shot opponents (139).
Home / Away
MacKenzie
Smyth
Home
62.1% (145)
42.2% (102)
Away
57.3% (178)
44.0% (100)
By Period
MacKenzie
Smyth
P1
51.6%
50.8%
P2
59.8%
41.3%
P3
65.8%
39.0%
OT
50.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
54.8%
41.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKenzie
56.0%▲
53.5%
59.4%
Smyth
50.0%▬
50.5%
43.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2013 | 3 | 12:58 | Neutral | Ryan Smyth |
| Mar 28, 2013 | 3 | 02:04 | Neutral | Derek MacKenzie |
| Mar 28, 2013 | 3 | 01:51 | Offensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Mar 5, 2013 | 3 | 13:11 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Mar 5, 2013 | 1 | 14:59 | Neutral | Ryan Smyth |
| Mar 5, 2013 | 1 | 07:28 | Neutral | Derek MacKenzie |
| Feb 10, 2013 | 3 | 02:44 | Neutral | Derek MacKenzie |
| Feb 10, 2013 | 1 | 15:25 | Offensive | Derek MacKenzie |