Scouting Report
Saku Koivu holds a +3.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Koivu on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Roy wins 46.7% vs left-shot opponents — Koivu shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Roy 47.5% vs Koivu 50.4% (-3.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Roy 81.5%
Defensive zone
Koivu 76.5%
Neutral zone
Roy 53.2%
Result
Saku Koivu favored at 50.9%
49.1%
50.9%
Roy
Koivu
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Roy
Koivu
Last 8: Roy 3-5 Koivu
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Roy
2
0
Roy
Koivu
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Koivu
0
3
Roy
Koivu
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Koivu
1
2
Roy
Koivu
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Roy
Koivu
Edge
Even Strength
43.0% (351)
50.4% (912)
-7.4%
Power Play
61.3% (106)
59.1% (44)
+2.2%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (9)
46.8% (111)
-13.5%
On penalty kill, Koivu has a +13.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Koivu shoots left. Roy is 46.7% vs left-shot opponents (306).
Roy shoots left. Koivu is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (700).
Home / Away
Roy
Koivu
Home
52.3% (241)
51.5% (610)
Away
41.3% (225)
49.0% (457)
By Period
Roy
Koivu
P1
51.6%
48.5%
P2
46.4%
51.5%
P3
43.1%
51.1%
OT
33.3%
57.1%
Final 5 min
47.9%
53.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Roy
72.0%▲
47.0%
47.0%
Koivu
46.0%▼
50.0%
50.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2014 | 2 | 12:02 | Neutral | Saku Koivu |
| Jan 18, 2014 | 3 | 16:18 | Neutral | Derek Roy |
| Dec 7, 2013 | 2 | 15:53 | Defensive | Saku Koivu |
| Dec 7, 2013 | 2 | 15:41 | Offensive | Derek Roy |
| Dec 7, 2013 | 2 | 12:15 | Defensive | Saku Koivu |
| Dec 7, 2013 | 1 | 08:18 | Defensive | Saku Koivu |
| Dec 7, 2013 | 1 | 08:14 | Offensive | Derek Roy |
| Dec 7, 2013 | 1 | 05:36 | Neutral | Saku Koivu |