Scouting Report
Sam Gagner holds a +4.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Ebbett on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Ebbett wins 32.3% vs right-shot opponents — Gagner shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ebbett 42.5% vs Gagner 44.6% (-4.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Gagner 74.9%
Defensive zone
Ebbett 57.9%
Neutral zone
Gagner 56.6%
Result
Sam Gagner favored at 53.0%
47.0%
53.0%
Ebbett
Gagner
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Ebbett
Gagner
Last 7: Ebbett 4-3 Gagner
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Ebbett
1
0
Ebbett
Gagner
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ebbett
2
1
Ebbett
Gagner
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gagner
1
2
Ebbett
Gagner
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ebbett
Gagner
Edge
Even Strength
38.3% (227)
42.1% (575)
-3.8%
Power Play
50.0% (12)
55.3% (123)
-5.3%
Penalty Kill
46.4% (28)
34.9% (43)
+11.5%
On penalty kill, Ebbett has a +11.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gagner shoots right. Ebbett is 32.3% vs right-shot opponents (62).
Ebbett shoots left. Gagner is 43.8% vs left-shot opponents (555).
Home / Away
Ebbett
Gagner
Home
37.2% (121)
45.6% (375)
Away
41.8% (146)
42.1% (366)
By Period
Ebbett
Gagner
P1
45.5%
40.1%
P2
40.2%
42.2%
P3
35.1%
48.2%
OT
0.0%
56.3%
Final 5 min
33.8%
44.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ebbett
42.0%▼
43.5%
39.7%
Gagner
48.0%▲
41.5%
43.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 27, 2013 | 3 | 15:47 | Neutral | Sam Gagner |
| Apr 27, 2013 | 3 | 14:16 | Neutral | Sam Gagner |
| Apr 27, 2013 | 2 | 15:27 | Defensive | Sam Gagner |
| Apr 27, 2013 | 1 | 12:31 | Offensive | Andrew Ebbett |
| Apr 4, 2013 | 2 | 13:12 | Neutral | Andrew Ebbett |
| Apr 4, 2013 | 1 | 13:15 | Defensive | Andrew Ebbett |
| Jan 20, 2013 | 2 | 06:34 | Defensive | Andrew Ebbett |