Scouting Report
Jason Arnott holds a +6.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Gagner on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Arnott wins 46.4% vs right-shot opponents — Gagner shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Arnott 50.2% vs Gagner 44.4% (+6.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Gagner 75.6%
Defensive zone
Gagner 63.9%
Neutral zone
Gagner 69.2%
Result
Sam Gagner favored at 68.7%
31.3%
68.7%
Arnott
Gagner
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
Arnott
Gagner
Last 8: Arnott 2-6 Gagner
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Arnott
1
0
Arnott
Gagner
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gagner
0
2
Arnott
Gagner
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gagner
1
4
Arnott
Gagner
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Arnott
Gagner
Edge
Even Strength
49.0% (777)
43.1% (758)
+5.9%
Power Play
58.1% (93)
50.3% (147)
+7.8%
Penalty Kill
30.0% (10)
34.6% (26)
-4.6%
On power play, Arnott has a +7.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gagner shoots right. Arnott is 46.4% vs right-shot opponents (267).
Arnott shoots right. Gagner is 45.1% vs right-shot opponents (253).
Home / Away
Arnott
Gagner
Home
51.1% (460)
47.4% (468)
Away
49.3% (434)
40.3% (467)
By Period
Arnott
Gagner
P1
45.3%
43.8%
P2
54.2%
43.8%
P3
49.8%
44.0%
OT
66.7%
42.9%
Final 5 min
48.4%
42.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Arnott
50.0%▬
50.0%
50.2%
Gagner
48.0%▲
41.5%
43.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 9, 2011 | 2 | 18:42 | Neutral | Sam Gagner |
| Nov 12, 2010 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Sam Gagner |
| Nov 12, 2010 | 3 | 18:16 | Defensive | Sam Gagner |
| Nov 12, 2010 | 2 | 15:50 | Neutral | Sam Gagner |
| Nov 12, 2010 | 2 | 10:53 | Neutral | Jason Arnott |
| Nov 12, 2010 | 2 | 06:51 | Defensive | Sam Gagner |
| Nov 12, 2010 | 1 | 19:26 | Offensive | Jason Arnott |
| Nov 12, 2010 | 1 | 10:06 | Neutral | Sam Gagner |