Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +8.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Gagner on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 9 meetings). Spezza wins 54.0% vs right-shot opponents — Gagner shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 54.7% vs Gagner 46.0% (+8.8%)
H2H factor
Gagner leads 12-8 in 20 meetings
Offensive zone
Gagner 65.0%
Defensive zone
Gagner 69.6%
Neutral zone
Gagner 70.7%
Result
Sam Gagner favored at 69.1%
30.9%
69.1%
Spezza
Gagner
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
12
(20 meetings)
8
12
Spezza
Gagner
Last 10: Spezza 4-6 Gagner
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Spezza
Gagner
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gagner
3
6
Spezza
Gagner
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gagner
3
4
Spezza
Gagner
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Gagner
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (7,990)
45.4% (4,699)
+9.0%
Power Play
56.8% (1,726)
51.5% (928)
+5.3%
Penalty Kill
52.7% (643)
35.0% (226)
+17.7%
On penalty kill, Spezza has a +17.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gagner shoots right. Spezza is 54.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,088).
Spezza shoots right. Gagner is 47.2% vs right-shot opponents (1,684).
Home / Away
Spezza
Gagner
Home
56.8% (5,066)
48.7% (3,025)
Away
52.7% (5,332)
43.0% (2,843)
By Period
Spezza
Gagner
P1
55.7%
44.6%
P2
54.4%
46.1%
P3
54.1%
47.3%
OT
51.5%
42.0%
Final 5 min
54.2%
45.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.7%
Gagner
48.0%▲
41.5%
45.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2022 | 2 | 15:54 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 29, 2022 | 2 | 06:35 | Defensive | Sam Gagner |
| Jan 29, 2022 | 1 | 19:45 | Defensive | Sam Gagner |
| Jan 29, 2022 | 1 | 08:21 | Neutral | Sam Gagner |
| Dec 1, 2018 | 2 | 19:56 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 30, 2017 | 1 | 11:18 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Nov 20, 2014 | 3 | 12:21 | Neutral | Sam Gagner |
| Nov 20, 2014 | 2 | 13:32 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Nov 20, 2014 | 1 | 15:21 | Defensive | Sam Gagner |
| Mar 4, 2014 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sam Gagner |
| Mar 4, 2014 | 2 | 14:12 | Offensive | Sam Gagner |
| Mar 4, 2014 | 2 | 11:09 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 4, 2014 | 2 | 08:46 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 4, 2014 | 2 | 08:38 | Defensive | Sam Gagner |
| Mar 4, 2014 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sam Gagner |
| Feb 11, 2012 | 1 | 18:58 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 12, 2011 | 3 | 15:34 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Nov 29, 2010 | 3 | 04:27 | Defensive | Sam Gagner |
| Nov 29, 2010 | 2 | 09:51 | Offensive | Sam Gagner |
| Nov 29, 2010 | 1 | 03:22 | Defensive | Sam Gagner |