Scouting Report
Trevor Smith holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Smith on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Gagner wins 45.4% vs left-shot opponents — Smith shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Gagner 46.0% vs Smith 48.7% (-2.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Gagner 81.5%
Defensive zone
Smith 56.7%
Neutral zone
Gagner 56.4%
Result
Sam Gagner favored at 62.6%
62.6%
37.4%
Gagner
Smith
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Gagner
Smith
Last 6: Gagner 1-5 Smith
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Smith
0
2
Gagner
Smith
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Smith
0
1
Gagner
Smith
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Smith
1
2
Gagner
Smith
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Gagner
Smith
Edge
Even Strength
45.4% (4,699)
49.0% (769)
-3.6%
Power Play
51.5% (928)
63.6% (22)
-12.1%
Penalty Kill
35.0% (226)
42.4% (118)
-7.4%
On power play, Smith has a +12.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Smith shoots left. Gagner is 45.4% vs left-shot opponents (4,184).
Gagner shoots right. Smith is 51.1% vs right-shot opponents (370).
Home / Away
Gagner
Smith
Home
48.7% (3,025)
52.4% (490)
Away
43.0% (2,843)
44.0% (420)
By Period
Gagner
Smith
P1
44.6%
46.9%
P2
46.1%
51.2%
P3
47.3%
47.7%
OT
42.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
45.4%
53.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Gagner
48.0%▲
41.5%
45.9%
Smith
46.0%▼
52.0%
48.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 29, 2013 | 2 | 07:57 | Offensive | Trevor Smith |
| Mar 22, 2012 | 2 | 16:48 | Defensive | Trevor Smith |
| Mar 22, 2012 | 2 | 03:24 | Neutral | Trevor Smith |
| Mar 22, 2012 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sam Gagner |
| Mar 22, 2012 | 1 | 00:09 | Offensive | Trevor Smith |
| Mar 22, 2012 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Trevor Smith |