Scouting Report
Sam Lafferty holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Tkachuk on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Tkachuk wins 46.8% vs right-shot opponents — Lafferty shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 48.6% vs Lafferty 50.9% (-2.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 86.0%
Defensive zone
Lafferty 94.9%
Neutral zone
Lafferty 59.8%
Result
Sam Lafferty favored at 50.2%
49.8%
50.2%
Tkachuk
Lafferty
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
1
(7 meetings)
6
1
Tkachuk
Lafferty
Last 7: Tkachuk 6-1 Lafferty
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
3
0
Tkachuk
Lafferty
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Tkachuk
Lafferty
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
2
0
Tkachuk
Lafferty
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Lafferty
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (421)
52.2% (366)
-4.7%
Power Play
50.3% (336)
60.0% (15)
-9.7%
Penalty Kill
12.5% (8)
46.2% (104)
-33.7%
On penalty kill, Lafferty has a +33.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lafferty shoots right. Tkachuk is 46.8% vs right-shot opponents (344).
Tkachuk shoots left. Lafferty is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (363).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Lafferty
Home
49.9% (389)
53.1% (258)
Away
46.8% (376)
48.9% (227)
By Period
Tkachuk
Lafferty
P1
44.4%
52.5%
P2
51.8%
49.7%
P3
47.8%
51.3%
OT
57.1%
33.3%
Final 5 min
44.3%
49.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
56.0%▼
60.5%
48.4%
Lafferty
56.0%▲
51.0%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1, 2023 | 1 | 07:03 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Mar 18, 2023 | 2 | 14:02 | Defensive | Sam Lafferty |
| Feb 17, 2023 | 3 | 19:08 | Neutral | Brady Tkachuk |
| Feb 17, 2023 | 3 | 17:56 | Defensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Feb 17, 2023 | 3 | 10:49 | Neutral | Brady Tkachuk |
| Feb 17, 2023 | 3 | 10:40 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Feb 17, 2023 | 2 | 01:04 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |