Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +4.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on neutral-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings). Staal wins 60.2% vs right-shot opponents — Lafferty shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 55.3% vs Lafferty 50.9% (+4.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Staal 73.4%
Defensive zone
Lafferty 54.9%
Neutral zone
Staal 71.4%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 68.1%
68.1%
31.9%
Staal
Lafferty
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Staal
Lafferty
Last 8: Staal 6-2 Lafferty
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
1
0
Staal
Lafferty
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Staal
5
2
Staal
Lafferty
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Lafferty
Edge
Even Strength
56.3% (1,115)
52.2% (366)
+4.1%
Power Play
61.2% (67)
60.0% (15)
+1.2%
Penalty Kill
52.1% (292)
46.2% (104)
+5.9%
On penalty kill, Staal has a +5.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lafferty shoots right. Staal is 60.2% vs right-shot opponents (528).
Staal shoots left. Lafferty is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (363).
Home / Away
Staal
Lafferty
Home
58.3% (705)
53.1% (258)
Away
53.3% (769)
48.9% (227)
By Period
Staal
Lafferty
P1
54.5%
52.5%
P2
58.2%
49.7%
P3
54.1%
51.3%
OT
60.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
54.9%
49.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
55.7%
Lafferty
56.0%▲
51.0%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2023 | 2 | 19:25 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 17, 2023 | 1 | 02:54 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 17, 2023 | 1 | 00:07 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 17, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 14, 2022 | 2 | 07:18 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 14, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sam Lafferty |
| Nov 14, 2022 | 1 | 16:59 | Neutral | Sam Lafferty |
| Nov 14, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |