Scouting Report
Ryan Carpenter holds a +5.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Carpenter on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carpenter 48.2% vs Lafferty 43.9% (+5.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lafferty 53.3%
Defensive zone
Carpenter 82.1%
Neutral zone
Carpenter 76.5%
Result
Ryan Carpenter favored at 74.6%
74.6%
25.4%
Carpenter
Lafferty
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
0
(7 meetings)
7
0
Carpenter
Lafferty
Last 7: Carpenter 7-0 Lafferty
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carpenter
1
0
Carpenter
Lafferty
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carpenter
3
0
Carpenter
Lafferty
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carpenter
3
0
Carpenter
Lafferty
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carpenter
Lafferty
Edge
Even Strength
48.8% (404)
42.6% (324)
+6.2%
Power Play
100.0% (1)
31.3% (16)
+68.7%
Penalty Kill
43.6% (101)
43.8% (16)
-0.2%
On power play, Carpenter has a +68.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lafferty shoots right. Carpenter is 50.7% vs right-shot opponents (140).
Carpenter shoots right. Lafferty is 37.5% vs right-shot opponents (88).
Home / Away
Carpenter
Lafferty
Home
48.9% (274)
40.9% (181)
Away
46.6% (232)
43.4% (175)
By Period
Carpenter
Lafferty
P1
51.9%
42.2%
P2
49.4%
36.4%
P3
41.8%
48.6%
Final 5 min
50.4%
37.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carpenter
48.0%▬
47.0%
47.8%
Lafferty
56.0%▲
51.0%
42.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 20, 2023 | 2 | 02:11 | Neutral | Ryan Carpenter |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 3 | 18:50 | Offensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 3 | 09:24 | Neutral | Ryan Carpenter |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 3 | 04:29 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 2 | 15:01 | Neutral | Ryan Carpenter |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 1 | 10:48 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 1 | 10:42 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |