Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +8.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 12 meetings). Reinhart wins 41.4% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Reinhart 43.3% vs Aho 51.3% (-8.2%)
H2H factor
Aho leads 11-8 in 19 meetings
Offensive zone
Reinhart 69.0%
Defensive zone
Reinhart 71.8%
Neutral zone
Reinhart 61.9%
Result
Sam Reinhart favored at 69.0%
69.0%
31.0%
Reinhart
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
11
(19 meetings)
8
11
Reinhart
Aho
Last 10: Reinhart 3-7 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
3
9
Reinhart
Aho
12 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Reinhart
4
1
Reinhart
Aho
5 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Reinhart
Aho
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Reinhart
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
42.5% (2,168)
50.1% (6,415)
-7.6%
Power Play
46.6% (519)
59.1% (1,297)
-12.5%
Penalty Kill
41.4% (338)
46.0% (446)
-4.6%
On power play, Aho has a +12.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Reinhart is 41.4% vs left-shot opponents (2,276).
Reinhart shoots right. Aho is 51.6% vs right-shot opponents (3,013).
Home / Away
Reinhart
Aho
Home
44.9% (1,519)
52.4% (4,199)
Away
41.3% (1,506)
50.2% (3,959)
By Period
Reinhart
Aho
P1
44.5%
51.2%
P2
40.4%
52.1%
P3
44.6%
50.8%
OT
43.5%
48.9%
Final 5 min
42.3%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Reinhart
46.0%▲
41.0%
43.1%
Aho
54.0%▼
56.5%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2, 2025 | 2 | 09:53 | Offensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 2 | 06:45 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 2 | 06:34 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 2 | 01:25 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 1 | 05:44 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 30, 2024 | 2 | 17:01 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 30, 2024 | 2 | 13:37 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 3 | 07:18 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 1 | 15:49 | Defensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 1 | 15:19 | Defensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 1 | 05:02 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 1 | 01:34 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 10, 2023 | 2 | 09:24 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 10, 2023 | 1 | 09:14 | Offensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Apr 13, 2023 | 3 | 18:36 | Neutral | Sam Reinhart |
| Apr 13, 2023 | 3 | 13:12 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Apr 13, 2023 | 1 | 00:07 | Defensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Feb 16, 2022 | 3 | 00:27 | Defensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Nov 6, 2021 | 1 | 10:09 | Offensive | Sam Reinhart |