Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.3% vs 53.5%). Look for Couturier on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Paul wins 58.1% vs left-shot opponents — Couturier shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Paul 53.9% vs Couturier 53.2% (+0.8%)
H2H factor
Couturier leads 8-4 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Couturier 54.4%
Defensive zone
Paul 51.6%
Neutral zone
Couturier 54.3%
Result
Sean Couturier favored at 52.9%
47.1%
52.9%
Paul
Couturier
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
8
(12 meetings)
4
8
Paul
Couturier
Last 10: Paul 3-7 Couturier
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Couturier
1
4
Paul
Couturier
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
2
1
Paul
Couturier
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Couturier
1
3
Paul
Couturier
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Paul
Couturier
Edge
Even Strength
53.1% (710)
53.8% (1,003)
-0.7%
Power Play
57.3% (199)
56.4% (202)
+0.9%
Penalty Kill
58.0% (69)
42.7% (89)
+15.3%
On penalty kill, Paul has a +15.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Couturier shoots left. Paul is 58.1% vs left-shot opponents (623).
Paul shoots left. Couturier is 52.0% vs left-shot opponents (823).
Home / Away
Paul
Couturier
Home
56.0% (466)
54.4% (680)
Away
52.7% (512)
52.4% (614)
By Period
Paul
Couturier
P1
57.2%
56.3%
P2
54.9%
51.8%
P3
51.5%
52.2%
OT
33.3%
60.9%
Final 5 min
52.3%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
54.3%
Couturier
52.0%▬
51.0%
53.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 9, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Couturier |
| Mar 9, 2024 | 2 | 15:42 | Neutral | Sean Couturier |
| Mar 9, 2024 | 1 | 19:47 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |
| Mar 9, 2024 | 1 | 05:35 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 9, 2024 | 1 | 00:19 | Offensive | Sean Couturier |
| Feb 27, 2024 | 3 | 08:58 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Jan 23, 2024 | 3 | 19:00 | Neutral | Sean Couturier |
| Jan 23, 2024 | 3 | 04:47 | Offensive | Sean Couturier |
| Jan 23, 2024 | 3 | 04:44 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 23, 2024 | 2 | 06:59 | Offensive | Sean Couturier |
| Jan 23, 2024 | 2 | 00:53 | Offensive | Sean Couturier |
| Jan 23, 2024 | 1 | 08:14 | Defensive | Nick Paul |