Scouting Report
Sean Kuraly holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Kuraly on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kuraly 50.3% vs Ostapchuk 48.4% (+2.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kuraly 67.2%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 92.5%
Neutral zone
Kuraly 80.8%
Result
Sean Kuraly favored at 86.6%
86.6%
13.4%
Kuraly
Ostapchuk
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Kuraly
Ostapchuk
Last 6: Kuraly 5-1 Ostapchuk
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
3
0
Kuraly
Ostapchuk
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kuraly
2
1
Kuraly
Ostapchuk
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kuraly
Ostapchuk
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (5,141)
48.5% (612)
+3.0%
Power Play
56.0% (100)
28.6% (7)
+27.4%
Penalty Kill
44.2% (1,086)
46.8% (62)
-2.6%
On power play, Kuraly has a +27.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ostapchuk shoots left. Kuraly is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (4,102).
Kuraly shoots left. Ostapchuk is 47.7% vs left-shot opponents (470).
Home / Away
Kuraly
Ostapchuk
Home
51.9% (3,187)
48.6% (319)
Away
48.7% (3,141)
47.8% (362)
By Period
Kuraly
Ostapchuk
P1
51.1%
48.2%
P2
49.9%
45.8%
P3
50.0%
50.5%
Final 5 min
49.0%
49.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kuraly
64.0%▲
57.0%
50.3%
Ostapchuk
44.0%▼
48.5%
48.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2026 | 1 | 19:36 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 1 | 16:26 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 1 | 05:57 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 2 | 13:50 | Neutral | Zack Ostapchuk |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 2 | 02:24 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 1 | 01:48 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |